Policies for a More Sustainable Energy Future

Howard Geller

October, 1999

Executive Summary

If current energy policies and trends continue along with fairly robust economic growth, it is estimated that global energy use will double from its 1990 level by about 2025, triple by 2050, and further rise in the latter half of the 21st century. The majority of this growth is expected to take place in developing countries, which could pass industrialized countries in total energy use by around 2025. This level of energy use growth, around 2.5 percent per year in the near term falling to 1.0 –1.4 percent later in the century, could present a variety of problems and challenges for mankind including

• High capital investment requirements

• Local environmental degradation

• Increased greenhouse gas emissions and global warming

• Increased oil import dependency in many nations

• Ignoring needs of the poor

For these reasons, a business-as-usual energy future is not desirable. Nor is it inevitable. By emphasizing energy efficiency improvements, renewable energy options, greater utilization of natural gas, and the needs of the poor, all of the problems listed above can be mitigated. However, energy efficiency, renewable energy (excluding large-scale hydropower), and clean, innovative fossil fuel technologies face a host of barriers limiting their introduction and deployment throughout the world. Some of the barriers will shrink as these technologies gain acceptance and market share; others are likely to persist unless directly confronted and reduced or removed through policy interventions.

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72 pp., 1999, $17.00, E992