Opportunities and Challenges of a No-Regrets Research and Development Program for Advanced Vehicle Technologies

James Kliesch

June 2007

Executive Summary

Advanced vehicle technologies have the potential to ease many of the environmental and political challenges associated with U.S. petroleum demand.  Extracting the United States from dependence on Middle Eastern oil, mitigating the sources of climate change, and improving regional air quality are a few of the major objectives that could in part be served through greater use of alternative vehicle technologies.

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have been characterized as a long-term solution to these challenges by many, including members of Congress and the White House.  However, a successful transition to a hydrogen-based transportation system is a complex and uncertain endeavor, as a daunting number of economic, technical, and logistical hurdles must first be overcome.  Considering the multi-dimensional challenges facing hydrogen and fuel cell vehicle development, significant market penetration of hydrogen vehicles is decades away, even under the most promising technology development scenario.

Over the past fifteen years, a number of energy initiatives have been developed aimed at reducing costs and minimizing market barriers for promising near-term vehicle technologies as well.  Hybrid-electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles, and flexible fuel vehicles capable of running on cellulosic ethanol, for example, all offer promise in reducing oil consumption, cutting GHG emissions, and improving local air quality.  Yet these technologies, too, will require proper nurturing before becoming a practical alternative to today’s conventional internal combustion engine vehicles.

In light of these challenges, and given the limited funds (both public and private) available for vehicle and fuel RD&D, development of effective vehicle technologies calls for a strategic approach.  Governmental entities allocating limited funds for research, development, and demonstration projects can make their investments go further by prioritizing the technologies that simultaneously build a path toward commercialization of fuel cell vehicles and increase the viability of other, more near-term vehicle technologies emerging today.

Resources spent on technologies and fuels that support multiple pathways to environmentally preferable vehicles rather than a single such pathway can be “no-regrets” investments.  These are investments in technology areas that move vehicles toward the goal of dramatically reduced environmental impacts, without requiring advanced knowledge of what vehicle and fuel will ultimately prevail.

Fortunately, many of the research areas related to these technologies have such potential, making them wise investment candidates.  Energy storage devices (such as advanced batteries and ultracapacitors), power electronics, vehicle electrification, lightweight materials, and parasitic loss reduction are a handful of the technologies that offer potential in this capacity.  These components can be utilized in a number of promising energy-saving advanced vehicle designs, including hybrid-electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, electric vehicles, and in some cases, even advanced conventional vehicles as well.  By prioritizing research funding toward overlapping technology areas such as these, one supports the evolution of vehicle technology without having to choose winners and losers.

Recent policy discussions on the topic of vehicle efficiency and advanced vehicle technologies have characterized the options as having an either/or relationship; fuel economy standards have come under fire for adversely impacting automakers’ abilities to pursue longer-term advanced vehicle technologies.  As this report demonstrates, advances in certain technologies can boost efficiencies in near-term vehicles, while simultaneously furthering longer-term transportation energy objectives.

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36 pp., 2007, $25.00, T072