Electricity Consumption and Peak Demand Scenarios for New England

Research Report U1605


Steven Nadel


Multiple trends will affect electricity demand in the coming decades, including the pace at which we adopt energy efficiency, photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and heat pumps. This report focuses on New England electricity consumption and peak demand in light of these trends, developing three scenarios. We find that electricity consumption and peak demand are likely to decline in the region through about 2030, but then start to grow with increased electric vehicle and heat pump saturation. Winter peak demand will grow more than summer peak demand; in our most aggressive scenario, the 2040 winter peak is nearly the same as the summer peak. We examine the details and implications of all three scenarios.