In this paper we examine the interaction between technology policy and its impact on the full basket of worldwide greenhouse emissions over the 21st century. The heart of the analysis is the Argonne National Laboratory's AMIGA Modeling System, a technology rich, general equilibrium model that (depending on data availability) characterizes as many as 200 sectors of the regional economies. We suggest in this paper that technologies and technology policies exist which could reduce carbon emissions enough to achieve stabilization targets at relatively modest costs given the size of the world economy. This can be accomplished largely through harnessing market forces and creating incentives with the use of efficient prices on greenhouse gas emissions, combined with complementary programs and policies to reduce market failures and to promote new technology improvements and investments.
In this paper we examine the interaction between technology policy and its impact on the full basket of worldwide greenhouse emissions over the 21st century. Our assessment is part of the current Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum study on a multi-gas climate policy assessment (EMF-21). For this analysis we are using two models: the Argonne National Laboratory's AMIGA modeling system (Hanson and Laitner, 2004; see also http://amiga.dis. anl.gov) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research's MAGICC model (Wigley, 2003; and also see http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/wigley/magicc/). The emission projections from the AMIGA model feed into the MAGICC climate model to estimate greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing (in watts per square meter), and global mean temperature change.
For the EMF-21 exercise we explored two types of climate goals: (1) long-run climate stabilization at roughly 2 degrees centigrade higher than 1990 levels by the year 2100, and (2) a rate of temperature change constrained to an increase of no more than 0.2 degrees centigrade per decade beginning in 2030 through the year 2100. As part of this exercise, the EMF-21 study also examines the many carbon and non-carbon options which might slow the rate of temperature increases. The options included: (i) both efficiency gains and abatement reductions in the emissions from the full basket of greenhouse gases, (ii) slowing the rate of deforestation, and (iii) the examination of carbon sinks in soils and geological formations. In this paper we focus on the first of these technology paths. More specifically, we explore the influence of technology and technology policy on both the energy-related carbon dioxide emissions and the non-carbon dioxide emissions including methane, nitrous oxides, and the so- called fluorinated-gases.
